Metaplanet (JP:3350), often called the “Strategy of Japan,” is sending mixed signals that have investors scratching their heads. The Tokyo-based firm just announced that its core business is booming, with operating profits expected to climb 81% this year. This follows a jaw-dropping 2025 where profits soared 17-fold. However, looking at the ticker tells a different story: the stock has plummeted over 60% in the last six months. For those asking if this is a buy-the-dip moment or a falling knife, the answer lies in the massive gap between the company’s operating success and its paper losses.
Metaplanet’s Options Writing Strategy Drives Revenue
The company’s underlying business is actually a money-making machine right now. Metaplanet reported that its operating profit hit 6.28 billion yen ($40.8 million) last year, driven almost entirely by a clever strategy of writing Bitcoin options. Essentially, they are getting paid high “premiums” just for owning Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and betting on its volatility.
- The Good News: Revenue jumped 738%, and the company expects to bring in 16 billion yen in 2026.
- The Bad News: Because Bitcoin’s price fell from its $125,000 peak to below $90,000 by the end of the year, Metaplanet had to report a “non-cash valuation loss” of 102.2 billion yen ($650 million). This massive number dragged their total net income into a loss of $605 million, which is exactly why the stock price has been crushed despite the business actually growing.
Management Buys the Dip
While the stock market is panicking, Metaplanet management is doubling down. The company now holds 35,102 BTC, worth more than $2.4 billion, and they have no plans to stop. They recently approved a massive 12.2 billion yen equity offering to buy even more coins. This creates a mismatch between the company’s growth and the stock price:
- The Bull Case: The company is trading at a huge discount because of paper losses that aren’t actually realized. If Bitcoin rebounds, those losses vanish, and you’re left with a company that has a highly profitable options-trading business.
- The Bear Case: To keep buying Bitcoin, Metaplanet is issuing millions of new shares. This dilutes current shareholders, meaning each share you own represents a smaller piece of the company.
Key Takeaway
Ultimately, whether Metaplanet is a buy depends on your view of Bitcoin. Overall, Metaplanet is a profitable business wearing a scary mask. On paper, they lost over $600 million, but in reality, they didn’t actually lose that cash, their Bitcoin just lost value on the open market. Meanwhile, they are making millions in actual cash by trading options on those coins. If you believe Bitcoin is going back up, the stock looks like a bargain because you’re getting the profitable trading business almost for free. But if you hate the idea of your investment being diluted by new share offerings, you might want to watch from the sidelines.
Is Metaplanet Stock a Good Buy?
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