Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading 40% below its record high of $126,000 as the market faces a dangerous turning point on Tuesday. While some of the biggest names in the industry still believe that Bitcoin’s price will triple before the end of the year, professional traders are sounding the alarm. New technical patterns suggest that the current recovery is losing steam and a deep slide could be next.
Bitcoin Bulls Target a $250,000 Price
Famous investors like Tim Draper and Tom Lee remain focused on a year-end target of $250,000. To reach this goal, the coin would need to rally more than three times its current value in just a few months. However, veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that the price charts are forming a bear flag. This pattern suggests the price is stuck in a downward channel.
If Bitcoin fails to stay above $69,000, the price could fall under $50,000 as the selling resumes.
History Indicates a May Trap
Data from past market cycles suggests that the 2025 peak might have been the end of the run. Usually, the highest price happens 12 to 18 months after a halving event. Since the last halving was in April 2024 and the record high of $126,000 happened in October 2025, the timing aligns perfectly with a market top.
Analysts also point to a “Sell in May” trend that often happens during U.S. midterm election years. In 2014 and 2022, the price dropped more than 60% starting in May. A similar move today would place the coin near the $30,000 level.
Economy Stalls Bitcoin’s Price Rally
The broader economy is also making it harder for Bitcoin’s price to climb back to $80,000. Consumer confidence has dropped to an all-time low as people struggle with rising costs tied to the conflict in Iran.
Because inflation expectations are rising, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates high. High rates make it more expensive for investors to take risks on digital assets. This lack of cheap money acts as a lid on the market, preventing the massive rally that bulls are hoping for.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is sitting at $75,962.65.
