Election 2024: Where To Put Your Money Ahead of the Vote

In this recurring series, The Fly recaps where the top analysts on Wall Street say to put your money ahead of November’s U.S. presidential election. In this edition, corporate leaders endorse Kamala Harris, while Harris and Trump face off in their first debate and what that would mean for stocks should they win the election.

CORPORATE LEADERS ENDORSE HARRIS: Eighty-eight corporate leaders (COST), Ford (F), American Express (AXP), Merck (MRK), PayPal (PYPL), Autodesk (ADSK), Lyft (LYFT), Yahoo, Docusign (DOCU), Yelp (YELP), DuPont (DD), Sony (SONY), PepsiCo (PEP), Zillow (ZG), Twilio (TWLO), and LinkedIn (MSFT). If the Democratic nominee wins the White House, they contend, “the business community can be confident that it will have a president who wants American industries to thrive.” They also argue that Harris would “continue to advance fair and predictable policies that support the rule of law, stability, and a sound business environment” if she were president.

DEBATE: Raymond James said it expects a near-term bounce towards Vice President Harris following the first debate with former President Trump, but the longer-term impact remains unclear. Trump continued to support additional tariffs, should he be elected. The firm expects additional tariffs, should Trump win in November, but the amount and timing are “very much up for debate,” it said.

Fracking was also featured in Tuesday’s debate, with Harris disavowing her previous position of seeking a ban. Publicly traded fracking companies include ProFrac (ACDC), Liberty Oilfield Services (LBRT), Nabors Industries (NBR), Patterson-UTI (PTEN), and ProPetro Holding (PUMP).

Trump stated that he is a supporter of solar energy, but questioned the benefits of a transition to green energy. Harris highlighted the national security aspect of tech restrictions on semiconductors and semi cap equipment. Publicly traded solar companies include First Solar (FSLR), Enphase Energy (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG), Sunnova (NOVA), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and JinkoSolar (JKS). Publicly traded companies in the semiconductor space include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), NVIDIA (NVDA), Marvel (MRVL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Micron (MU), Microchip (MCHP).

Meanwhile, on the topic of healthcare, Trump said he would “replace Obamacare” and indicated that he would support a plan to improve the ACA. Harris highlighted her record strengthening the ACA, capping the cost of insulin at $35, capping the costs of prescription drugs at $2,000, and establishing the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation program. Publicly traded healthcare companies include Cigna (CI), CVS Health (CVS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Humana (HUM), and Centene (CNC).

Following Tuesday’s debate, shares of Trump Media & Technology (DJT) were down as much as 18%.

CANNABIS: President Trump on Sunday made comments on social media more definitely in favor of cannabis, saying he would vote yes on the Florida adult-use cannabis measure, was supportive of rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I, and favored common sense federal cannabis reform such as banking for state-legal cannabis. Alliance Global Partners views the more definitive statement from former Trump as “derisking a Trump victory stalling Schedule III review.” A Trump victory could potentially clear the way for cannabis reform via legislature given reform has historically had strong Democratic support and now former President Trump is setting the stage for more Republicans to support cannabis, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Publicly traded companies in the space include Aurora Cannabis (ACB), CV Sciences (CVSI), Canopy Growth (CGC), Cronos Group (CRON), Goodness Growth (GDNSF), Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF), IGC Pharma (IGC), Tilray (TLRY), Trees Corporation (CANN) and Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF).

UBS: UBS said in a note on Tuesday that a Trump victory would likely raise expectations of extended tax cuts and lighter regulation, as well as concerns over higher tariffs and that the primary beneficiaries of deregulation would be the financial and traditional energy sectors. The firm said less stringent antitrust enforcement could spur a pickup in M&A activity. Higher tariffs would be a headwind to companies with supply chains abroad, particularly those exposed to China in the consumer discretionary, industrials, and tech sectors. Domestic producers in areas such as steel, lumber, aluminum, and solar cells could instead benefit. Publicly traded companies in the financials space include Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Publicly traded companies in the energy sector include Devon Energy (DEVN), Chevron (CVX), TotalEnergies (TTE), ExxonMobil (XOM), BP (BP), Shell (SHEL), and ConocoPhillips (COP).

UBS said that a Harris win would likely be accompanied by a split Congress and force her administration to rely on executive actions and regulatory oversight for issues like climate change. The firm expects supportive initiatives for green energy, efficiency, and electric vehicles. Publicly traded companies in the EV space include Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Nio (NIO), Lucid Group (LCID), Li Auto (LI), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Nio (NIO), Li Auto(LI) and Xpeng (XPNG).

US STEEL: Nippon Steel (NPSCY) Vice Chair Takahiro Mori was scheduled to meet with several deputy cabinet secretaries involved with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. on Wednesday in an effort to save the proposed $15B acquisition of U.S. Steel (X) which is opposed by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, The Financial Times’ Demetri Sevastopulo, Leo Lewis, and David Keohane reported, citing people familiar with the situation. Harris previously voiced her opposition to Nippon Steel’s pending purchase of U.S. Steel saying at an event in Pittsburgh that U.S. Steel should remain domestically owned and operated.

The deal has become an issue in the U.S. presidential race because U.S. Steel is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a critical swing state.