JPMorgan cuts 2024 iPhone forecasts with 16 ‘lacking early momentum’

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee says the iPhone 16 has been available to consumers for a little over a week and the launch is “lacking early momentum” for the high-end models when compared to prior cycles. The difference in the lead times relative to prior years in the early weeks points to “more muted momentum” in early orders for the Pro models relative to JPMorgan’s original expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says tins is likely due to the unavailability of artificial intelligence capabilities, with consumers likely delaying purchases until the features are available and the value proposition is better understood. As a result, JPMorgan moderated its near-term iPhone unit forecast, now expecting aggregate iPhone volumes to track to 126M in the second half of 2024 versus 130M prior and 132M a year ago. That said, the firm’s expectations for a “robust AI cycle” in the medium-term remain unchanged, as it notes the revision in near-term estimates only represents a modest push out from volumes to later in the cycle. JPMorgan expects consumer appetite for the AI-based iPhones, including the 16 Series, to increase with the broader availability of AI features. It keeps an Overweight rating on Apple with a $265 price target