At the outset of 2020, Moderna (MRNA) was hardly a household name. But with 2021 in plain sight, the whole world is keeping a close watch on the company’s latest developments.
More pointedly, Moderna has firmly planted itself in the general public’s psyche due to its Covid-19 vaccine candidate mRNA-1273.
The company reported interim data from a late stage study, in which mRNA-1273 displayed a 94.1% success rate in preventing the coronavirus (100% against severe cases), making the granting of an EUA (emergency use approval) from the FDA increasingly likely.
In fact, Brookline Capital analyst Leah Rush Cann believes approval could be sealed by mid-December.
After assessing the Moderna model following the vaccine’s positive results, the 5-star analyst noted, “Moderna’s probability of success should be meaningfully increased; therefore, we are lowering our discount and increasing our target price to reflect these changes.”
The change is a significant uptick – up from $95 to $164. Unsurprisingly, the analyst’s rating for MRNA stays a Buy. (To watch Cann’s track record, click here)
The bullish case for Moderna currently resides with mRNA-1273’s worldwide commercial opportunity. Moderna anticipates manufacturing between 500 million to 1 billion doses next year, and Cann expects the vaccine to account for 99.2% of the company’s 2021 revenue. The US government has already put in an order for 100 million doses of mRNA-1273, with an option to purchase another 400 million. The European Union has ordered 80 million doses and another 56 million are earmarked for Canada.
However, Cann also points out the Covid-19 vaccine is just one of several assets in Moderna’s potentially lucrative pipeline.
“mRNA-1273 is one of 17 experimental clinical compounds Moderna has in development,” Cann said. “The potential products in clinical development have the potential to have combined estimated sales of $77.1 billion by 2030. In addition, Moderna has seven preclinical programs that have the potential for combined 2030 sales of $8.4 billion.”
Most of Cann’s colleagues also look favorably upon Moderna’s prospects, though not all are convinced. Based on 8 Buys, 4 holds and 2 Sells, the stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. However, shares have gained 680% year-to-date, and trading at near all-time high of $152.74. The analysts evidently feel the stock has surged enough for now; The $111.46 average price target suggests the share price will drop by 27% over the next 12 months. (See MRNA stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
