One of the early frontrunners in the race to get a Covid-19 vaccine to market, Novavax (NVAX) has encountered delays in getting its offering out to the public. But at last the results are in from the U.S/Mexican Phase 3 trial for NVX-CoV2373, and they did not disappoint.
The vaccine was tested on almost 30,000 patients and displayed an overall efficacy rate of 90.4%, while also 100% effective in providing protection against moderate and severe disease.
Following strong sets of data from the U.K. and South African late-stage studies, B. Riley analyst Mayank Mamtani says the latest results could “meaningfully assuage investors’ concerns.”
Since Novavax noted a 93.2% vaccine efficacy rate in 54 cases for which there was available data, Mamtani thinks investors were worried about the circulating variants of concern (VOC) and variants of interest (VOI) that were “theoretically perceived” to have negatively impacted the vaccine’s effectiveness. Those worries can now be laid to rest.
The vaccine maker intends to file for regulatory authorizations in Q3 and remains on target to hit a manufacturing capacity of 100 million doses per month by the end of the third quarter. By the end of 4Q21, that figure should increase to 150 million doses per month.
But now that Covid is on the backfoot and there are other just as effective solutions already available, is it too late for Novavax to make its mark? Not at all, say Mamtani.
“We believe an extremely compelling case could now be made from three independent large-scale, randomized, placebo-controlled trials in a total of ~50k subjects of ‘2373’s highly potent, safe and well-tolerated product profile to serve as meaningfully disruptive to the fast-evolving C-19 vaccine global marketplace, constituting of the booster market in western economies increasingly driven by consumer choice, and a trusted, reliable vaccine option best suited for lower-middle income countries (LIMC) increasingly being adversely impacted by troublesome VOC/VOI,” the 5-star analyst explained.
To this end, Mamtani reiterates a Buy rating on NVAX shares along with a $286 price target. The analyst, therefore, expects shares to appreciate ~38% in the year ahead. (To watch Mamtani’s track record, click here)
The rest of the Street has a more conservative outlook; according to the $238.60 average price target, the forecast is for 12-month upside of 15%. Overall, based on 4 Buys and 2 Holds, the stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. (See NVAX stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
